Thursday, May 4, 2006

Albert Pujols getting better? My predictions

Yep, you heard it here. Pujols is now taking that next step into immortal territory. As much as I hate the guy, I have to name this "Bonds Territory," and it's where Pujols is about to venture.


I'll tell you.

For the last two years his walk/strikeout ratio has been 84/52 and 97/65.

The trend in his career has been a slow, steady reduction of Strikeouts with a slow, steady rise in walks.

Which is good.

But he still would only draw about a third more walks than strikeouts. Which is great, but it ain't Bonds.

His walk ratios the last two full years have been: 148/58 and 232/41, which is ridiculous, hence the naming of the "Bonds Territory" after him. His OBP for those two seasons? .529 and .609 respectively, which is insane.

Now, lets look at how pitchers (and Pujols) are adjusting to how good Pujols is becoming.

This season his walk / strikout ratio is: 29/7. That's over four times as many walks as Ks. That's pretty much near what Bonds has been doing lately. His OBP so far is .492, which tells us he's close to Bonds, but not quite there yet (he's got a .330 AVG, so his OBP is only 162 points higher. Bond has a .512 OBP with a mere .250 AVG, for a differential of 262 points.)

Not only will I make the claim that Pujols will be the next Bonds, I will go even further and tell you who will become the next Pujols (the mini-Bonds, if you will).

Miguel Cabrera of the Marlins.

Granted, a lot depends on what team he plays for numberswise, but he's becoming just as feared as Pujols was a few years ago.

For the past two years he's pretty much averaged 60 BBs and 120 Ks. His OBP has been .366 and .385 respectively. Notice how it's creeping up?

Well, with the lack of protection behind him and respect he's earned in the league, here's what he's done this season:

19 walks and 20 Strikeouts, which is almost 1 for 1.

Which is close to Pujols' 2nd and 3rd seasons.

So, what have we learned?

Pujols is the next Bonds.

Cabrera is the next Pujols.

I hate Bonds but I respect the numbers he's put up.

Who is the next Cabrera?

Come on, I've done enough work already.


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